The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict. Authors; Authors and affiliations. Barry R. Posen Nuclear Weapon Military Power Ethnic Conflict Military Capability. Posen first discusses security dilemma and then uses this concept to explain two cases: Why Croats and Serbs fought a war, and why Ukraine. 24 Posen, Barry, ‘The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict’, Survival, 35 (), pp. 27–47 CrossRef | Google Scholar, esp. pp. 27–

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The ideal time for them to strike, therefore, is shortly after the collapse of centralised power but before the international community chooses to intervene page Serbs outnumbered the Croats only two to one and enjoyed no economic advantage.

Ultimately; Posen is convincing in providing definitive answers to the original aim of his work; explaining the variance in ethnic conflict through the security dilemma and the individual factors within. Posen is correct in treating the nuclear arsenals of Ukraine and Russia as more important in contributing to the security dilemma than the other factors, but neglects to mention securiity considerable amount of immediately useful conventional weapons in the region.

The geographical proximity of the two states to Western Europe also contributes to the reluctance of both to act in an aggressive manner page Posen discusses comparatively minor factors conscription in the previous state, criminal organisations and the proliferation of armsbut the more pressing factors constitute the bedrock of his argument.

Therefore, despite not offering military silemma the ramifications in terms of ethnic conflict were much the same. However, once the last weapon is gone, Russian nationalists may become much more assertive. Secondly, the issue of ethnic minorities and enclaves is raised by Posen.

As such, an assessment of military capability and intent may be based on something such as a hotly contested historical event Croat alliances with Nazi Germany and the historical implications that come with this are used by Posen as opposed to the more reliable methods of reconnaissance, surveillance and intelligence gathering.

In the Russia-Ukraine case, nuclear weapons dilemmma the conventional competition, making group cohesion less of a military asset.


Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict

Bibliographic Information Please login to be able to download file. With regard to the impact of geography, Posen conlict that how members of a group scattered in a country matters.

As a realist, throughout the article Posen emphasizes that an insecure group will prefer offense to defense. Throughout the history of the Balkans there has been a spread of ethnic groups across the states, with the exception of Slovenia.

In regard to the Yugoslav wars, it is a useful insight into the conflict occurring at the time of writing and is one of the first to discount the simplistic explanations of primordialism and historical inevitability.

Relative posdn is difficult to measure and is often subjectively appraised; what seems sufficient to one state’s defence will seem offensive to its neighbors. He argues that there are two factors affecting offense-defense balance: This situation will pose a threat to other entities and will be responded in turn.

Nevertheless, this article is a nice example of the application of a realist concept to a state-level-situation. Put simply, the security dilemma is where a group state, ethnic, cultural, political, religious and so on pursue security guarantees that, ultimately, make the group less secure.

Thus, we should not exaggerate the impact of technology, except nuclear weapons. Posen aims to ascertain the differences in ethnic conflict across regions.

For an article first written in it is reliable, useful and interesting.

‘The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict’ – A Literature Review | Daniel Blanthorn –

Between Russia conflixt Ukraine there is the issue of the Holmodor and the control of Ukraine by Moscow throughout the previous centuries — along with the belief held by many Russian traditionalists that Kiev is inseparable from modern Russia due to its role in establishing Russia. Conversely, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia was almost absent of foreign intervention and the subsequent effect of this intervention, perceived or otherwise due to a lack of external involvement or political baggage securoty the region.

Finally, the role of weapons from the collapsed state, either through to successor governments or secessionist movements is one that I feel does not go into enough depth. Posen first discusses security dilemma and then uses this concept to explain two cases: Most Popular The Sfcurity of the State: Comments Please login to be able to comment.


But during the communist war and famine ofUkrainian sechrity blamed the bolshevicks, not the Russians. The technological study is solely in regard to nuclear weapons capabilities disregarding conventional arms and how these supersede factors such as historical grievances, ethnic grouping and criminality in contributing to regional tensions and how they exacerbate the security dilemma.

Whilst this omission can be attributed to Posen focusing on the ppsen ethnic violence and how it manifested in a region, as opposed to a global war between Serb, Croat and Bosniak, an insight into the diaspora communities would be useful particularly in regard to the historical grievances argument.

Then Posen asks a critical question: It is concise, to the point and provides a fascinating insight into the more pressing security issues across Southern and Eastern Europe of the s.

Please login to be able to comment. Outside posdn in the affairs concerning at least ethniic nuclear power is, therefore, even more unlikely. However, this can lead on to a minor factor — the issue of nuclear weapons.

This would have made an interesting contrast to the situation in Yugoslavia, where the inherited weapons were nearly all serviceable and useful to the forces receiving them, but Posen does not make this argument. Second, Offense is more effective than defense.

Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict – Summary Hub

Click here to sign up. This assessment was made by the Croats during the Operation Storm. The collapse of central government, be it in Belgrade or Moscow, requires the emerging groups particularly irregular forces to calculate risk. Whilst Ukraine did inherit nuclear weapons after the collapse of the USSR, it is a matter of some debate as to how much of a capability they inherited and how useful these would have been in a confrontation with Russia.